进口纱再度燃爆，18年市场主基调已定•Yarn Weekly review（Issue No.18）

Posted 2021-05-01 柏报世界

Spring is in full swing!

Planting the cotton crop as well as planting optimism and excitement. 

国储棉拍储进入了第十一周，轮出底价为14940元/吨，本周拍储成交率全部在100%，新疆棉平均加价2000多一吨，地产棉平均加价800多一吨。仅仅一周的时间美棉指数从83涨到89，郑棉指数从16000涨到18000，这个突发状况直接造成了作者缺席了上周的纱场点睛，本周又延迟点睛。COTLOOK现货指数这几天处于95左右，较上周涨了4美分。现货市场从人人讨论淡季模式，突然反转到争相采购，这个突然的反转真是让人有点措手不及。5月20日，中美双方发表联合声明，达成不打贸易战的共识，中国将大量采购美国农产品，而且很可能是采购美国实际可供应的数量。进口棉的大门即将开启，海外棉花供应商纷纷做准备出口棉花去中国，远期棉花价格上涨快于现货棉花，海外远期纱线价格高企甚至暂时封盘。虽然现货涨价效果并不明显，但是库存下降非常明显。

National Reserve cotton auction entered into an eleventh week, base price is  RMB14940/ton, three days auction rates are all at 100% of this week, average transaction price of Xinjiang cotton is added RMB2000 plus per ton from base rate, average domestic cotton transaction price is added RMB800 plus per ton from base rate. In just one week, the U.S. cotton index rose from 83 to 89, and ZCE cotton index rose from 16000 to 18000. Another important iconic index Cotlook A index is recently standing at 95 levels, increased 4 cents from last week. The sudden reversal is a bit of a surprise when the spot market suddenly reverts to a rush to buy from everyone talking about the off-season mode. On May 20, China and the United States issued a joint statement, agreeing not to fight a trade war, that China would buy a lot of U.S. agricultural products, probably the actual number of available U.S. supplies. The door of import of cotton will open soon, overseas cotton suppliers are preparing for exporting cotton to China, the price of forward cotton is rising faster than spot cotton prices, the forward   shipments of cotton yarn are promoting at high price level, some even holding offering temporarily.

Futures Daily Market-24th May.2018

近期精梳远期货价格和现货价格倒挂已经有一段时间了，但是在此次价格上涨中，无论是现货还是期货的精梳采购均以成交为主，价格上涨明显，好的供应商开始8月份货期的销售或者封盘。越南32普上喷气品质报价在每公斤美金3.25，巴基斯坦远期货10支赛络的报价在470-480，三个主要纱线出口市场均在销售7月份和8月份的货期的货。印尼的顶级包漂白32精报价在3.80. 根据笔者观察，5月份和6月份的后续到港货量不会减少，最新印度普梳上喷气机织纱16支/21支/32支报价在每公斤美金2.70/2.80/3.05，远远超过国内现货销售价格，所以远期货成交缓慢，7月份货期货量还很充足。

Forward shipments price of combed yarn had kept at high price for some time, but made quantity sales in recent one week, both spot shipment sales and forward shipment sales had done very good quantity, and transaction price almost followed supplier’s idea price, contract price jumped high, good quality yarn suppliers started selling August capacity portion, or even holding the offering for time being. Vietnam origin forward shipments of 32sKW for Airjet loom quality yarn is offering USD3.25. Pakistani suppliers are offering at around 470-480 level of 10s Siro yarn, July and August portion capacity is available for sale. According to the author, it will maintain the import volume of coming month. The latest forward shipment offering of  Indian origin 16sKW/21sKW/32sKW for Airjet looms quality level yarn at around USD2.70/2.80/3.05, but it is far beyond China spot shipment price, that’s the reason why forward shipments sales are slow down, July shipment portion is still available for sale.

Related Currency Conversion-24th May.2018

根据进口宝对市场的观察，中美贸易战刚刚宣布停火，后续影响才刚刚开始释放。由于要加大进口，短期内人民币大幅贬值可能性不大，也就是在6.4水平。国际市场上，由于美元的走强，主要棉纱出口国家的汇率也都相应上涨，利于他们的出口。从棉纱成本上来看，上周美棉期货指数维持在一个高水平，今天到达了87.21，处于11个月内的高位.Cotlook ‘A’指数在94.90，也维持在高位。所以棉花和汇率对棉纱价格的支撑还是比较的明显。

According to the observation of the market, China-USA trade war has just declared a ceasefire, and the subsequent impact has only just begun to be released. Based on the government commitment to the world, China will increase to import volume, means RMB devaluation might not be possible recently, it will remain at 6.3-6.4 level. In the international market, because of the strength of the dollar, the exchange rate of major cotton export countries has also risen correspondingly, which is conducive to their export. to it is more sensibility about the fluctuation of RMB currency exchange rate. Regarding the cost of cotton yarn, U.S.Cotton futures index is at 87.21, this is a very high level in recent 11 months, Cotlook ‘A’ index touched 94.90， also remains very high level, means both cotton price and currency exchange rate are firm signals to support the yarn price.

 Viscose Products Market-24th May.2018

上周粘胶纤维市场价格稳中上扬，北方产能限产加上传统市场淡季的双重影响，中端纤维价格暂时稳定在了人民币14200/吨。人棉纱销售进入淡季模式，但是暂时实际成交量并无没明显减少，目前出口30支环纺价格维持在每公斤美金2.65.

The market price of viscose fiber is also increased last week, due to combined impacts on limited running capacity of north China and traditional slack season of the spot market, medium quality fiber price is standing at RMB14200/ton for time being. Rayon yarn has maintained offering price at USD2.65, demand is still there, not shrink yet.     

据国产纱市场调研了解，纯棉纱市场销售良好，纺织厂纱线库存大约是月产量的30%，价格稳中有升。虽然现货棉花价格大涨，但是纺织厂并没有积极跟进采购棉花，而且普遍认为棉花价格会有一定的回落，所以棉纱价格也没有大的上涨。

The glimpse we got of local yarn market, cotton yarn demands are still good, spinning mills inventory level is at about 30% of monthly running capacity, yarn price did RMB200/ton increase this week. Although spot cotton price has increased a lot, but rare spinners followed it, contrary, they are expecting cotton price to come down soon. At this moment, the exact market transaction price is maintaining the previous level, Local yarn 32skw is at RMB23500-24000/ton,40skw at RMB24000-24500/ton, and OE 10s at RMB15000-15500/ton.

今日郑棉纱期货主力1810收于26440元/吨，当天跌1030元/吨，跌幅3.75%

今日郑棉期货主力1901收于17840元/吨，当天涨165元/吨，涨幅0.93%

往期精彩回顾

进口宝聚焦海外纺织原料，通过国际贸易流程规范化提升进口效率，快速匹配国外卖家和国内买家，实现一键销售和一键采购，让上下游顾客获得满意的交易体验。

进口宝交易商城网址： www.webuy.net.cn

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