Yarn trader squeezed by difficult situation|进口纱行情煎熬 到底什么原因？

Posted 2021-05-01 CNCIC

据青岛、宁波、广东等地的棉纱贸易商反馈，9月下旬以来进口棉纱报价、港口出货未现触底反弹迹象，除C32及以上高配包漂纱、高支紧密纺的询价和成交“差强人意”外，OE纱、低支环纺纱、低支赛络纺纱及JC21S、JC32S纱等整体交投气氛不活跃，清关C32S及以下巴基斯坦纱、报价偏高的印尼纱及低配不包漂的印度纱提货比较冷清。

According to the feedback of cotton yarntraders in Qingdao, Ningbo, Guangdong and other places, since late September,the quotation of imported cotton yarn and sales at ports have not rebounded.Except that the inquiry and transaction of the C32 and above high-portionedbleached yarns is barely satisfied, the overall trading atmosphere of OE yarn,low-count ring spinning, low-count siro spinning and JC21S, JC32S yarns is notactive, and the delivery of customs cleared C32S and below Pakistani yarns,high-priced Indonesian yarns and low-portioned Indian yarns is relatively cold.

宁波某进口企业表示，目前的行情对贸易商而言是个“煎熬”，一方面ICE棉花期货、外棉报价持续偏弱调整，包括印度、越南、巴基斯坦等国棉纱FOB、CNF等即期、“期货纱”报价一而再、再而三的下滑，国内中间商和织布企业采购都是“按方抓药”，砍价的力度、幅度都很大，而贸易商6/7/8月份签约进口外纱成本高企，根本没有让利、降价空间；另一方面近期美元指数再度走强（上破96关口），人民币被动贬值幅度扩大，外纱清关进口成本持续上升；但若不清关，保税库仓储、保险等等一系列费用支出又使贸易商难以“招架”。

An import enterprise in Ningbo said thatthe current market is a “panic” for traders. Onthe one hand, the quotation of ICE cotton futures and foreign cotton continuesto be weak, including cotton yarn FOB, CNF of Indian, Vietnam, Pakistan andother countries. The quotation of “futures yarn” continues to decline, domestic middlemen and weaving enterprises giveprices according to the market, so the bargain is large, and the continuoushigh cost of singing imported foreign yarn provides no space for reducingprofit and prices; on the other hand, recently, the US dollar index goes strong(break through 96), the depreciation of RMB continues to expand, and the costof customs clearance for foreign yarns has continues to increase; but if it isnot cleared by customs, the expenditures such as the storage in bondedwarehouse, insures and other fees will make traders hard to bear.

据海关统计，2018年8月我国进口棉纱线约20万吨，环比基本持平，但同比增加约25.97%，与之相呼应的是8月份印度、越南、巴基斯坦、印尼纱等中国主港抵港、交货量也相对偏高（几家大型贸易商估测8月份外纱到港量在20万吨以上）；但9月份外纱抵港数量预计将有较大的滑坡，或低于15万吨，其中印度、印尼纱入保税库、交货的降幅略大，原因如下：

一是7/8月印度棉纱出口价格大幅下挫（仅8月份棉纱对华出口价格就下调14美分/磅），纱厂利润状况堪忧（一些中低支纱、非包漂纱已产销“倒挂”），部分印度、印尼等国纱厂以原料不足、产能受限等多种原因延迟执行合同；二是国内郑期、棉花现货全面进入下跌通道（CF1901盘面价格从8月底的17175跌到15350，跌幅10.63%；现货回调空间也近1000元/吨），国产纱的竞争力大幅增强，进口棉纱处于劣势；从贸易公司报价来看，C32棉纱内外价差拉大到200-300元/吨；三是考虑到人民币汇率大幅波动、进口棉纱销售相对冷清，为了减少资金占压、减少仓储、保险等等费用，部分中国买家要求国外纱厂、出口商减缓甚至暂停按合同装运。

Accordingto the statistics of customs, China imported 200,000 tons of cotton yarn inAugust, 2018, unchanged month on month, but increased by 25.97% year on year.In response, the amount and the delivery amount of yarn from India, Vietnam,Pakistan, Indonesian arrived in Chinese main ports was relatively high (severallarge traders estimated that the arrival of foreign yarns in August was over200,000 tons); however, the amount of foreign yarn arriving at ports inSeptember is expected to have a large decline, and it may be less than 150,000tons, of which the delivery of India, Indonesian yarn dropped largely, and themain reasons are as follows:First, the export price of Indiancotton yarn fell sharply in July/August (the export price of cotton yarn toChina was lowered by 14 cents/lb only in August), and the profit situation ofthe yarn mill declined sharply(the production and sales of some middle andlow-count yarns were upside down), and some Indian and Indonesian yarn millsdelayed the execution of contracts due to insufficient raw materials andlimited production capacity; second, domestic Zhengzhou futures and spotentered the downtrend channel comprehensively (the market price of CF1901 fellfrom 17175 at the end of August to 15350, with the decline rate of 10.63%; spotcallback space was also nearly 1,000 Yuan/ton). The domestic yarn'scompetitiveness has increased significantly and the imported cotton yarn is ata disadvantage; from the quotation of trading company, the spread of domesticand foreign C32 cotton yarn was up to 200-300 Yuan/ton; third, considering thelarge fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate and the relatively sluggish salesof imported cotton yarn, in order to reduce the pressure on capital, reduce thecost of warehousing, insurance, etc., some Chinese buyers required foreign yarnmills and exporters to slow down or even suspend shipments as agreed in thecontract.

 

几家专门经营印度纱的贸易公司表示，相较于港口保税、清关的印度纱，12/1/2月份“期货纱”的询价、签约状况要稍好，价格低、新棉上市导致纱线品质提高及高支精梳纱、紧密纺纱（普梳和精梳）的供应上升是主要原因；而其它经营巴纱、印尼、泰国、中亚纱的贸易商的日子则更不好过，纱支低、竞争力弱、产品高度重叠。

Several trading companies specializing inIndian yarn said that compared with the port bonded and customs cleared Indianyarn, the inquiry and contract of the “Futures Yarn” inDecember/January/February is slightly better, and low price, raised quality dueto the sales of new cotton and the increase in the supply of high-count combedyarns and compact spinning (combed and combed) are the main reasons; Othertraders operating the Pakistani yarn, Indonesia yarn, Thailand yarn and CentralAsian yarn are even more difficult due to low yarn count, weak competitivenessand high overlap of products.

业内分析，目前C32S包漂印度纱内盘报价高于越南纱200-300元/吨，再加上越南纱C26-C40S纱基本100%美棉配棉及越南纱很大一部分是“返销”回国内，因此印度纱在中国市场想抢占越南纱市场份额、撼动越南纱位置并不容易，但印度纱对中国出口量将逐渐拉大与巴基斯坦的差距，坐稳、坐实“老二”的地位。

Accordingto the industry analysis, at current, the quotation in domestic market of C32Sbleached Indian yarn is 200-300 Yuan/ton higher than Vietnam yarn, Vietnam yarnC26-C40S yarn is almost assorted by 100% US cotton, and a large part of Vietnamyarn is "resold" back to China, so it is not easy for Indian yarn toseize the Vietnamese yarn market share in the Chinese market and to change theVietnamese yarn position. However, the Indian yarn exports to China willgradually widen the gap with Pakistan, and it will be stably take the secondplace.