Why cotton yarn import plunge in February? | 2月棉纱进口因何骤降？

Posted 2021-05-01 CNCIC

据海关统计，2018年2月我国进口棉纱线约9.2万吨，同比减少47%，环比减少53%，近5年来棉纱月度进口量首次回落至10万吨以内；与棉纱进口持续走低遥相呼应的是，2月份我国进口棉花10.27万吨，环比减少23.2%，同比减少25.7%，棉花、棉纱线的进口下滑非常明显，在2018年人民币升值提速、国内棉花棉纱消费预期不断调高及进口棉纱品质、稳定性不断改善的前提下，花纱进口却同步遇冷。与进口形成对比的是，2月份我国出口棉纱线约3.13万吨，同比增加44%，虽然出口总量大幅低于进口量，但增长幅度和市场前景却非常值得期待。

Accordingto the statistics of customs, in February 2, China imported about 92,000 tonsof cotton yarn, decreasing 47% year on year and 53% month on month. For thepast five years, it is the first time that the monthly import volume fell backto less than 100,000 tons; in response to the continuous decrease of cottonyarn, in February, China imported 102,700 tons of cotton, decreasing 23.2%month on month and 25.7% year on year. Imports of cotton and cotton yarns fellvery sharply. In 2018, under the condition of the speeding-up of theappreciation of RMB, the continuous rise of consumption anticipation ofdomestic cotton and cotton yarn and the continuous improvement of the qualityand the stability of the imported cotton, the import of cotton and cotton yarnalso decreases. In contrast to imports, China exported about 31,300 tons ofcotton yarn in February, increasing 44% year on year. Although the total exportvolume is significantly lower than the import volume, the growth rate andmarket prospects are very much worth looking forward to.

 

一些机构和纺企认为，随着3月12日储备棉轮出的启动，国内纺40S及以下支数棉纱的原料成本有较大下滑（3月上下旬，储备新疆棉的日竞拍成交价稳定在14300-14600元/吨，低于目前内地库2017/18年度3128级新疆棉1200-1500元/吨），再加上目前印度、巴基斯坦国内棉价花价格居高不下，以及ICE期货主力合约站在82上方盘整。因此我国中低支、中低配棉棉纱的出口空间反而继续看好。

Some institutions and textileenterprises believe that with the start of the reserve cotton rounding out onMarch 12, the cost of raw materials for domestic spinning yarns with a yarncount of 40S or below has declined significantly (in the first and last tendays of March, the daily auction price for reserve Xinjiang cotton was stableat 14300-14600 Yuan/ton, which was 1200-1500 Yuan/ton lower than the currentdomestic warehouse 2017/18 3128 grade Xinjiang cotton), and the cotton pricesin India and Pakistan remained high, and the ICE futures main contract Standwas in consideration above 82. Therefore, the exportingspace of China’s low and medium counts and low and medium cotton assortingyarns is expected to continue to be promising.

 

那么，造成2月份我国棉纱进口创5年新低的原因有哪些呢？

Then, What are the reasons forthe new low of five-year for China’s cotton yarn imports in February?

 

其一、我国纺织企业转型、升级成效越来越显著，对OE纱、低品质、低档次进口纱的需求不断萎缩。在内外棉花价差偏大、国内纺织服装企业人工和能源及其它支出不断上升及国际市场竞争激烈的情况下，我国产业升级、产品转型加快，对32S及以上高配包漂的普梳、精梳纱采购、签约不断增加；而对21S及以下支数棉纱的进口却越来越提不起兴趣。广东、江浙、山东青岛等地棉纱贸易商经营OE纱、低支赛络纺及16S-21S普梳纱的比例下滑比较大，除C32-C40S、JC32S（JC32S/2）外，一些贸易商尝试进口JC40S-JC60S印度、越南、印尼纱（含紧密纺），扩大进口、经营量；

First, the transformation andupgrading of textile enterprises in China have become more and moresignificant, and the demand for OE yarns, low-quality and low-grade importedyarns has continued to shrink. Under the situation that the difference betweenthe price of domestic and foreign cotton is large, the cost of labor ofdomestic textile and clothing companies, cost of energy and other expenditurescontinue to increase and the competition in the international market is fierce,China’ s industrial upgrading and product transformation are accelerated, andpurchasing and signing contracts of high grade drifted carded cotton and combedcotton with 32S or above have continued to increase; however, imports of 21Sand below yarn count have become increasingly uninterested. Cotton yarn tradersin Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Qingdao, Shandong saw a relatively largedecline in the proportion of OE yarns, low-count siro spinning and 16S-21Scarded yarns. In addition to C32-C40S and JC32S (JC32S/2), some traders triedto import JC40S-JC60S India, Vietnam and Indonesia yarns (including compactspinning) to expand imports and business volume;

其二、3月储备棉轮出对国内棉纱消费市场的影响提前消化，进口纱与国产纱的价格从持平转为“倒挂”。内地部分中小棉纺厂表示，储备新疆棉颜色级以“13、14”级为主，“双28/双29”的比例并不低，含杂、一致性等指标甚至高于2017/18年度新疆机采棉，做32S、40S棉纱原料绰绰有余；更关键的是，竞拍成交价低于新棉报价1000元/吨以上，纺企、中间商棉纱报价随储备棉轮出而振荡下调，织造、服装企业的采购重心转向国内。3月下旬，国产中配C32针织纱报价集中在22800-23200元/吨；而进口包漂C32印度、越南纱的价格则23000-23500元/吨，内外纱倒挂200-300元/吨；

Second, the impact of reservecotton rounding out on the consumption market of domestic cotton yarn in Marchdisappeared in advance. The prices of imported yarns and domestic yarns changedfrom being equal to “upside down.” Some small and medium-sized cotton mills inthe Mainland stated that the reserves of Xinjiang cotton grades are mainly “13and 14” grade and the proportion of “double 28/double 29” is not low, andindicators such as impurity and consistency are even higher than those of2017/18 Xinjiang machine-harvested cotton, and it is good enough to be the rawmaterials of 32S and 40S cotton yarn; more importantly, the auction price is1000 Yuan/ton lower than the new cotton price, and the quotation of cotton yarnof textile enterprises and middlemen is unevenly declined, weaving and garmententerprises’ procurement focus shifted to the domestic. In late March, thequotation of domestic C32 knitted yarn was all at 22,800-23,200 Yuan/ton; whilethe price of imported drifted C32 India and Vietnam yarn was 23,000-23,500Yuan/ton, and the selling prices of domestic yarn and foreign yarn was 200-300Yuan/ton lower than the purchasing price of those;

其三、2月份是中国春节，棉纺织厂、进口贸易商、海关及政府部门等暂缓或暂停工作，也是导致棉花、棉纱进口数据偏低的重要因素；

Third,February was Chinese Spring Festival, and cotton mills, import traders, customsand government departments postponed or suspended their work, which was also animportant factor leading to low data of imports of cotton and cotton yarn.

其四、布厂和贸易商对2018年2、3月份人民币汇率大幅波动及中美贸易战的担忧加剧，棉花、棉纱进口风险加偏大，主动收缩。2018年以来，人民币强势回升。3月27日，人民币兑美元中间价大幅报6.2816，创2015年8月11日以来新高。汇率的剧烈波动对纺织服装厂、外贸公司接中长期订单的影响非常大，而锁汇、固定汇率或人民币结算的难度较大。

Four,concerns of cloth factories and traders on the sharp fluctuations in theexchange rate of RMB and the trade war between China and the United States inFebruary and March of 2018 were heightened. The import risks of cotton andcotton yarns increased and they voluntarily contracted. Since 2018, the RMB hasrebounded strongly. On March 27, the intermediate price of the RMB against theUS dollar was reported at 6.2816, a record high since August 11, 2015. Thesharp fluctuation of the exchange rate has a great impact on the medium andlong-term orders received by textile and garment factories and foreign tradecompanies, and it is difficult to lock the exchange rates, fix exchange ratesor settle with RMB.