风平浪静几多日，为有拨云见日时•Yarn Weekly Review（Issue No.16）

Posted 2021-05-01 进口宝

Spring is in the air!

Planting the cotton crop as well as planting optimism and excitement. 

国储棉拍储进入了第七周，轮出底价为14989元/吨，虽然较上周调低了42元/吨，但是拍储成交率回升到了周一的52.62%，是否和上周五的美棉期货大涨有关？但是上周的COTLOOK现货指数一直处于回调过程中，而且普遍市场的反馈是进口纱市场已经进入了淡季，现货销售缓慢，价格在低位徘徊。对峙状态的中美贸易战给国内市场都带来了紧张情绪，但是因为穆斯林国家的斋月就要开始，纱线产量将会减少，目前海外纱线价格高企。在以上的综合因素作用下，现货市场明显清淡，降价盘纷纷出现，市场价格混乱。

National Reserve cotton auction entered into a sixth week, base price is  RMB14989/ton. Even it is decreased RMB42/ton this week, auction rates recovered to 52.62% of Monday, is it got influence by big jumped ICE index last Friday? Another important iconic index Cotlook A index came down last week, generally market got the similar feedback which market has come into slack season, spot shipment sales is slow down, and the sales price is staying low level rate. Impasse tension in trade war against China and USA causes some panic emotion to domestic market business, Ramadan is about to begin in Muslim countries, it will impact yarn output, for time being, overseas yarn is offering high price level. Combination of the above factors, spot market is slow down, more and more dumping prices had emerged, the market price is in a mess. 

Futures Daily Market-24th.April.2018

海外供应商加紧了5月份和6月份货期的远期货的销售，虽然国内现货市场的清淡，但是各位商家对后市的走势有一定的分歧，所以远期货的采购是处于见仁见智状态，各自在不同的品种和价位上做出选择并且下单，根据笔者观察，后续到港货量不会减少。进口商依然期待印度普梳上喷气机织纱16支/21支/32支成交价格在每公斤美金2.55/2.65/2.97，但是印度实际报价已经远远超过该水平，精梳报价相差太大，就不做描述了。越南32普上喷气品质报价在每公斤美金3.18。目前巴基斯坦远期货10支赛络的报价在450-460，还有少量6月份货期的货处于销售中。印尼的顶级包漂白32精报价在3.50。

Overseas yarn suppliers have stepped up sales of May and June portion shipments, each buyer has a certain difference to the trend of later market. Importers are placing orders by own sense and judgment, selecting suitable yarn subjects and purchase rate. According to the author, it will maintain the import volume of coming month. Because of this slow down spot market, importers are still expecting the forward shipments’ price which would be same as previous Indian origin 16sKW/21sKW/32sKW for Airjet looms quality level yarn at around USD2.55/2.65/2.97,32sCH is at a big gap between suppliers’ offers and  importer’s idea price. Vietnam origin forward shipments of 32sKW for Airjet looms quality yarn is offering USD3.18. Pakistani suppliers are offering at around 450-460 level of 10s Siro yarn, June portion capacity is not much but still available for sale.

Related Currency Conversion-24th.April.2018

根据进口宝对市场的观察，中美贸易战的预期不会减退，而且将从从贸易战延伸到经济战，市场对人民币汇率问题造成的进口纱成本的影响变得更加敏感，目前维持在6.30左右的进口结汇价格，短期人民币进一步贬值的可能性应该不大。国际市场上，由于美元的稳定，主要棉纱出口国家的汇率也都相对稳定，所以市场供需平衡是影响纱价的主要因素了。从棉纱成本上来看，上周美棉期货指数还是维持在一个很高水平，今天到达了84.26，处于11个月内的高位.Cotlook ‘A’指数在93.80，也维持在超高位。所以棉花对棉纱价格的支撑还是比较的明显。

According to the observation of the market, domestic market is more sensitive about the fluctuation of RMB currency exchange rate. The prediction of tension China-USA trade war will keep going on, probably trade war will extend to economics war, RMB currency is more likely trend to appreciation. Going to international market, US currency is steady these few weeks, and main cotton yarn supplying countries’ currency are also in steady range, means international yarn price mainly is relying on the consumption demands. Regarding the cost of cotton yarn, U.S.Cotton futures index is at 83.36, this is a very high level in recent 11 months, Cotlook ‘A’ index touched 92.65， also remains very high level, these are firm signals to support the yarn price.

Viscose Products Market-24th.April.2018

上周粘胶纤维市场价格大降，中端纤维价格降到了人民币13800/吨，高端纤维的价格也同幅度一起下落，出口市场将进入淡季应该是其中之一的原因。人棉纱的实际成交量并无没明显减少，但是价格下调明显，目前出口30支环纺价格在每公斤美金2.65。

The market price of viscose fiber fell sharply last week, medium quality fiber price is at RMB13800/ton, first grade fiber price is also falling, might be the reason for slow down export business. Rayon yarn has updated offering price at USD2.65, this is the big decline, but demand is still there, not shrink yet.     

据国产纱市场调研了解，纯棉纱市场交投难实现持续增量，市场还是维持前期成交价格，针织纱成交比较活跃，但是机织纱成交仍处于弱势。抛储棉花的成交率虽然已经恢复，但是由于纱线市场还是处于淡季模式，纺织厂销售基本是以成交为主，本周的小长假前的备货行情并不明显。

The glimpse we got of local yarn market, knitting yarn demands is still good, but weaving yarn market is slow in recent two months. Although rate of national reserve stocks sales has been recovered, but due to slack season of spot yarn market, spinners basically prefer to make the deal primarily, so far, the sales before this week's holiday is not obvious. At this moment, the exact market transaction price is maintaining the previous level, Local yarn 32skw is at RMB22500-23500/ton,40skw at RMB23000-24000/ton, and OE 10s at RMB15000-15500/ton.

今日郑棉纱期货主力1807当天无成交。

今日郑棉期货主力1809收于15415元/吨，当天跌30元/吨，跌幅0.19%。

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