请英文好的朋友帮忙翻译下列文字

Posted 2023-03-03

石油危机：
摆脱不了战争的影子
如果从近年油价上涨的轨迹看，新一轮石油属于“渐进式”上涨，到2008年达到了矛盾爆发的“临界点”。纵观近年来的国际环境，油价同样摆脱不了战争的影子。
有学者早就提出“2004年是石油危机的爆发之年”，这一年正是伊战爆发的第二年。
有数据显示，伊战爆发一周年后，由于战争显现出持久战迹象，原本认为战争会很快结束的想法，逐渐转变成了对石油供应的担忧。当年3月27日，国际原油期货首次超过每桶30美元。此后，伊战背景下的油价上涨速度明显加快：2004年为41.5美元，2005年为56.7美元，2006年为66.2美元，2007年（截至10月份）为72.5美元。而到了2008年1月3日，国际原油期货价格盘中首次突破100美元。
前美联储主席格林斯潘在回忆录中，隐讳地表达了伊战的石油政治企图，认为两场战争（海湾战争与伊战）是两次石油危机的逻辑连接点。
能源争夺：
炒作油价的“政治土壤”
北京大学国际关系学院博士生导师、《美国国家战略》一书的作者刘金质教授认为，新一轮石油危机的蔓延，与前几次石油供应骤然减少不同，这次危机中石油供需不存在石油短缺的情况。在供需没发生根本改变的情况下，这次油价飙升的炒作成分更多些。在各国重视能源、争夺能源的大背景下，国际油价显得非常“敏感”，从而易于被各种市场与政治力量无限“放大”。
如果从更大范围观察，除了资本在炒作能源外，各国实际上也在“炒”能源，争夺能源的“无硝烟战争”氛围很浓厚。非洲与北极自去年以来备受关注，就是因为这两个区域将是未来油气开采的新领地。
同样，自去年以来，伊朗、委内瑞拉两国一直在利用“能源武器”拓展外交空间。由于伊朗能源丰富，欧盟、俄罗斯、日本、印度等国与伊朗存在能源合作，极大牵制了安理会对伊朗制裁的步伐，使美国孤立伊朗的任何企图都变得复杂化。对委内瑞拉的查韦斯来说，国内油气资源则是对抗美国的核心本钱。
刘金质教授认为，俄罗斯日益娴熟地动用“能源牌”，就是发挥“能源外交”的很好案例。在全球能源问题日益突出的背景下，俄罗斯将提高油气产能、发展对外油气合作作为拓展国家利益、提升大国地位的重要手段，借此加快自身国力的恢复与发展。
“心理预期”推高油价
早在2008年前，就有科学家认为，石油生产的“巅峰”时期将在未来5~10年到来。一旦石油生产“巅峰”时代到来，石油产量将逐年下降。
从长远看，由于全球对能源需求预期的增量呈上升趋势，而能源又具有不可再生与稀缺性，类似“心理预期”将使油价始终维持高位运行。
即便是类似太阳能、风能、生物源这样的再生能源，在最好的情况下，也只能满足工业化国家能源需求的四分之一。虽然供需矛盾短期内可以解决，油价短期内可以迅速回落，但从长期来说，“能源逐步枯竭论”的预期，始终是投机资本兴风作浪的支撑点。
因此，要想解决国际油价的攀升，还必须消除全球对今后能源生产与供应不足的担忧，化解类似“石油枯竭”的心理预期。不过，就目前来看，“能源短缺”的心理预期显然无法消除。

原文：
石油危机：
摆脱不了战争的影子
如果从近年油价上涨的轨迹看，新一轮石油属于“渐进式”上涨，到2008年达到了矛盾爆发的“临界点”。纵观近年来的国际环境，油价同样摆脱不了战争的影子。
有学者早就提出“2004年是石油危机的爆发之年”，这一年正是伊战爆发的第二年。
有数据显示，伊战爆发一周年后，由于战争显现出持久战迹象，原本认为战争会很快结束的想法，逐渐转变成了对石油供应的担忧。当年3月27日，国际原油期货首次超过每桶30美元。此后，伊战背景下的油价上涨速度明显加快：2004年为41.5美元，2005年为56.7美元，2006年为66.2美元，2007年（截至10月份）为72.5美元。而到了2008年1月3日，国际原油期货价格盘中首次突破100美元。
前美联储主席格林斯潘在回忆录中，隐讳地表达了伊战的石油政治企图，认为两场战争（海湾战争与伊战）是两次石油危机的逻辑连接点。
能源争夺：
炒作油价的“政治土壤”
北京大学国际关系学院博士生导师、《美国国家战略》一书的作者刘金质教授认为，新一轮石油危机的蔓延，与前几次石油供应骤然减少不同，这次危机中石油供需不存在石油短缺的情况。在供需没发生根本改变的情况下，这次油价飙升的炒作成分更多些。在各国重视能源、争夺能源的大背景下，国际油价显得非常“敏感”，从而易于被各种市场与政治力量无限“放大”。
如果从更大范围观察，除了资本在炒作能源外，各国实际上也在“炒”能源，争夺能源的“无硝烟战争”氛围很浓厚。非洲与北极自去年以来备受关注，就是因为这两个区域将是未来油气开采的新领地。
同样，自去年以来，伊朗、委内瑞拉两国一直在利用“能源武器”拓展外交空间。由于伊朗能源丰富，欧盟、俄罗斯、日本、印度等国与伊朗存在能源合作，极大牵制了安理会对伊朗制裁的步伐，使美国孤立伊朗的任何企图都变得复杂化。对委内瑞拉的查韦斯来说，国内油气资源则是对抗美国的核心本钱。
刘金质教授认为，俄罗斯日益娴熟地动用“能源牌”，就是发挥“能源外交”的很好案例。在全球能源问题日益突出的背景下，俄罗斯将提高油气产能、发展对外油气合作作为拓展国家利益、提升大国地位的重要手段，借此加快自身国力的恢复与发展。
“心理预期”推高油价
早在2008年前，就有科学家认为，石油生产的“巅峰”时期将在未来5~10年到来。一旦石油生产“巅峰”时代到来，石油产量将逐年下降。
从长远看，由于全球对能源需求预期的增量呈上升趋势，而能源又具有不可再生与稀缺性，类似“心理预期”将使油价始终维持高位运行。
即便是类似太阳能、风能、生物源这样的再生能源，在最好的情况下，也只能满足工业化国家能源需求的四分之一。虽然供需矛盾短期内可以解决，油价短期内可以迅速回落，但从长期来说，“能源逐步枯竭论”的预期，始终是投机资本兴风作浪的支撑点。
因此，要想解决国际油价的攀升，还必须消除全球对今后能源生产与供应不足的担忧，化解类似“石油枯竭”的心理预期。不过，就目前来看，“能源短缺”的心理预期显然无法消除。

翻译： (中文 » 英语)
The oil crisis:
Could not escape the shadow of war
If rising oil prices in recent years from the track, a new round of oil a "gradual" rise to the 2008 outbreak of the conflict reached a "critical point." Looking at the international environment in recent years, oil prices also could not escape the shadow of war.
Some scholars have long put forward the "oil crisis in 2004 is the year of the outbreak," This year is the second year of the war in Iraq broke out.
Statistics show that after the first anniversary of the outbreak of the war in Iraq, the war showed signs of a protracted war, was that war would end very soon the idea of a gradual change in the oil supply concerns. That on March 27, the first international crude oil futures more than 30 U.S. dollars a barrel. Since then, the war in Iraq against the background of the rising oil prices significantly speed up the pace: in 2004 was 41.5 dollars in 2005 to 56.7 U.S. dollars and 66.2 U.S. dollars for 2006, 2007 (as at October) to 72.5 U.S. dollars. And to the January 3, 2008, after international crude oil futures prices exceeded 100 U.S. dollars.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in his memoirs, Yin Hui expressed the political attempts to Iraq's oil that the two wars (the Gulf War and the war in Iraq) is the two oil crises of the logic connection point.
Energy for:
The oil price speculation "political soil"
Institute of International Relations at Peking University doctoral tutor, "U.S. national strategy," a book the author Professor Liu Jinzhi, a new round of the spread of the oil crisis, and on previous occasions to reduce the supply of oil suddenly different, the crisis in oil supply and demand of oil shortage does not exist The situation. Did not occur in the supply and demand fundamental change in the circumstances, the surge in oil prices of more components such speculation. In countries attach importance to energy, energy for the big context, the international oil price is very "sensitive" and thus easy to market and the various political forces unlimited "Larger."
If the larger scope of observation, in addition to the capital in energy speculation, in fact all countries are "speculation" energy, energy for the "no smoke of war" atmosphere is very strong. Africa and the Arctic since last year of concern, it is because the two regions will be the future of oil and gas exploitation of the new territory.
Similarly, since last year, Iran and Venezuela have been using "energy weapon" expanding its diplomatic space. As energy-rich Iran, the European Union, Russia, Japan, India and other countries for energy cooperation with Iran exist, the Council's great to contain the pace of sanctions on Iran, the United States any attempt to isolate Iran have become complicated. Venezuela's Chavez, the domestic oil and gas resources is the core capital against the United States.
Professor Liu Jinzhi that Russia increasingly skilful use of "energy card", is to play "energy diplomacy" very good case. In the global energy issues have become increasingly prominent as a backdrop, Russia will increase oil production capacity, the development of foreign oil and gas cooperation as the interests of developing countries, upgrading the status of an important means to accelerate its national strength of the recovery and development.
"Psychological expected to" push up oil prices
As early as 2008, scientists have considered that the oil production "peak" period in the next five to 10 arrival. Once oil production "peak" times come, oil production will decline year by year.
The long run, global demand for energy due to the expected incremental upward trend, but also with non-renewable energy and scarce, similar to "psychological expectations" will always maintain high oil prices.
Even if the similar solar, wind, biological sources such renewable energy sources, in the best of circumstances, can only meet the energy needs of the industrialized countries of the quarter. Although the conflict between supply and demand can be solved in the short term, oil prices could rapidly fall in the short term, but long term, "gradual depletion of energy," expected, is always the strong point of speculative capital stir up trouble.
Therefore, in order to solve the rising international oil prices, we must also eliminate the future of global energy production and supply shortage concerns, similar to defuse the "oil depletion" psychological expectations. However, the present situation, "energy shortage" of the psychological expectations obviously can not eliminate. 参考技术A 完美翻译:

Oil crisis: Shake off the trajectory going up without end if the war shadow painting price from the late years, one new wheel petroleum has belonged to "the style advancing gradually" go up , has reached the "critical point" that contradiction breaks out to 2008. Make a general observation of in recent years international environment , same breakaway of oil price without end the war shadow. "Year of having a scholar to suggest that 2004 is the oil crisis outburst" for a long time, this exactly is he|she's second year of war outburst for 1 year. Have data display , he|she to fight with the outburst one anniversary queen, since war manifests out protract war indication, copy of the first edition has regarded as war idea that can be over very quickly , has transformed into the concern supplying to petroleum gradually. On March 27 that very year, international crude oil futures exceeds 30 U. S. dollar per barrel first. Henceforth, the oil price under he|she's war background goes up speed is accelerated obviously: Be 41.5 U. S. dollar in 2004 , be 56.7 U. S. dollar in 2005 , be 66.2 U. S. dollar in 2006, be 72.5 U. S. dollar in 2007 (by 10 months). But have arrived at January 3 , 2008 , have broken 100 U. S. dollar first in international crude oil forward price plate. The former US couplet stores chairman Green Sipan up in the book of reminiscences , avoids mentioning a field having expressed the petropolitics attemp that he|she battles , thinks that two war (Gulf War and he|she battle) is a two time of oil crises logic junction. The sources of energy is contended for: The "politics soil " Peking University international relation academy Ph.D candidate director, "USA country strategy " one book author Liu Jin quality professor who makes oil price hot thinks, new one wheel the oil crisis infestation, with the first several time petroleum supply cut down diversity abruptly, petroleum supply and demand petroleum shortage condition does not exists among this time of crisis. Under the condition that foundation changes happened in supply and demand, the speculation component that the current oil price storm rises has more . International oil price is appeared very "sensitive" , the strength "is enlarged" thereby easily boundlessly by the various marketplace and politics under big background taking the sources of energy seriously , contending for the sources of energy in every country. "Being stir-frying" the sources of energy in fact also in every country , contending for the sources of energy "nothing smoke of gunpowder war " atmosphere except that capital is making the sources of energy hot if from broader scale observation,very deep. Africa and North Pole are paid close attention to fully since the last year, be the new manor that the oil gas exploits because of this two area will be future. By the same token, since the last year, Iran , Venezuela both countries have been making use of "the sources of energy weapon " to make rubbings from exhibition diplomacy space. There exist a cooperation in the field of energy in European Union , Russia , Japan , countries such as India and Iran since Iran sources of energy is rich,extremely large the step having restrained Security Council from punishing to Iran, any attemp making USA isolate Iranian all becomes being made complicated. To Venezuelan Chaweisi, oil and gas resources is to resist American core capital in the homeland then. The Liu Jin quality professor thinks that Russia employs "the sources of energy plate " gradually adeptly ,be the very good case bringing "the sources of energy diplomacy into play". Russia looks on to improving an oil gas producing energy , to developing the external oil gas cooperation as the important means making rubbings from the position showing country benefit , hoisting the important country , borrows this accelerating oneself national power's recovering and developing under background being outstanding gradually in the whole world the sources of energy problem. "Mentality expects to push high oil price as far back as 2008 the front " , there is scientist thinking right away, the "mountain peak peak " period that petroleum produces will in 5 ~ future arrival in 10. Once petroleum produces "the mountain peak peak " times arrival, petroleum output will come down year by year. In the long run, the increment assumes an uptrend since the whole world anticipates that to the energy demand , the sources of energy can't have incomplete may regenerate and sparse but , similar "mentality expects to will make oil price maintain high position operation all the time ". Even if being that the similar solar energy , wind energy source , living things source regenerate the sources of energy like this, under best situation, a quarter also being able to only satisfy the industrial country energy demand. Solve though the short-term inner of imbalance between supply and demand is not bad, the short-term inner of oil price can be prompt making fall after rise, but from that the long range comes, "step by step exhausted theory of the sources of energy" anticipating that , the center of resistance being that risk capital stirs up trouble all the time. Therefore, need to think that clambering resolving international oil price's rises , must remove the whole world to the sources of energy the days to come producing and supplying insufficient concern, the mentality resolving similar "petroleum drying up " anticipates that. Either live with , or come at present "the energy shortage " mentality expects to have no way to eliminate evidently. 参考技术B 翻译：
The oil crisis:
Could not escape the shadow of war
If rising oil prices in recent years from the track, a new round of oil a "gradual" rise to the 2008 outbreak of the conflict reached a "critical point." Looking at the international environment in recent years, oil prices also could not escape the shadow of war.
Some scholars have long put forward the "oil crisis in 2004 is the year of the outbreak," This year is the second year of the war in Iraq broke out.
Statistics show that after the first anniversary of the outbreak of the war in Iraq, the war showed signs of a protracted war, was that war would end very soon the idea of a gradual change in the oil supply concerns. That on March 27, the first international crude oil futures more than 30 U.S. dollars a barrel. Since then, the war in Iraq against the background of the rising oil prices significantly speed up the pace: in 2004 was 41.5 dollars in 2005 to 56.7 U.S. dollars and 66.2 U.S. dollars for 2006, 2007 (as at October) to 72.5 U.S. dollars. And to the January 3, 2008, after international crude oil futures prices exceeded 100 U.S. dollars.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in his memoirs, Yin Hui expressed the political attempts to Iraq's oil that the two wars (the Gulf War and the war in Iraq) is the two oil crises of the logic connection point.
Energy for:
The oil price speculation "political soil"
Institute of International Relations at Peking University doctoral tutor, "U.S. national strategy," a book the author Professor Liu Jinzhi, a new round of the spread of the oil crisis, and on previous occasions to reduce the supply of oil suddenly different, the crisis in oil supply and demand does not exist Oil shortage. Did not occur in the supply and demand fundamental change in the circumstances, the surge in oil prices of more components such speculation. In countries attach importance to energy, energy for the big context, the international oil price is very "sensitive" and thus easy to market and the various political forces unlimited "Larger."
If the larger scope of observation, in addition to the capital in energy speculation, in fact all countries are "speculation" energy, energy for the "no smoke of war" atmosphere is very strong. Africa and the Arctic since last year of concern, it is because the two regions will be the future of oil and gas exploitation of the new territory.
Similarly, since last year, Iran and Venezuela have been using "energy weapon" expanding its diplomatic space. As energy-rich Iran, the European Union, Russia, Japan, India and other countries for energy cooperation with Iran exist, the Council's great to contain the pace of sanctions on Iran, the United States any attempt to isolate Iran have become complicated. Venezuela's Chavez, the domestic oil and gas resources is the core capital against the United States.
Professor Liu Jinzhi that Russia increasingly skilful use of "energy card", is to play "energy diplomacy" very good case. In the global energy issues have become increasingly prominent as a backdrop, Russia will increase oil production capacity, the development of foreign oil and gas cooperation as the interests of developing countries, upgrading the status of an important means to accelerate its national strength of the recovery and development.
"Psychological expected to" push up oil prices
As early as 2008, scientists have considered that the oil production "peak" period in the next five to 10 arrival. Once oil production "peak" times come, oil production will decline year by year.
The long run, global demand for energy due to the expected incremental upward trend, but also with non-renewable energy and scarce, similar to "psychological expectations" will always maintain high oil prices.
Even if the similar solar, wind, biological sources such renewable energy sources, in the best of circumstances, can only meet the energy needs of the industrialized countries of the quarter. Although the conflict between supply and demand can be solved in the short term, oil prices could rapidly fall in the short term, but long term, "gradual depletion of energy," expected, is always the strong point of speculative capital stir up trouble.
Therefore, in order to solve the rising international oil prices, we must also eliminate the future of global energy production and supply shortage concerns, similar to defuse the "oil depletion" psychological expectations. However, the present situation, "energy shortage" of the psychological expectations obviously can not eliminate. 参考技术C Petroleum crisis:
Can't get away from the shadow of war
If the track soared from the recent years oil price see, a new petroleum belongs to "gradually enter a type" to soar and come to a "critical point" of self-contradict explosion till 2008.Take a wide view in recent years international environment, the oil price equally can't get away from the shadow of war.
Having scholar to early put forward "2004 be the year of the explosion of petroleum crisis" is earlyexactly the second year that the Yi fights explosion this year.
There is data manifestation, Yi war after breaking out one anniversary, because the war presents a protracted warfare evidence, originally think the viewpoint that the war will end very quickly and change gradually to the misgiving of petroleum supply.That year March 27, the international crude oil futures first time is more than USD 30 per bucket.Henceforth, Yi war under the background of the oil price soar speed obviously speed:2004 is USD 41.5 and 2005 is USD 56.7 and 2006 is USD 66.2, is USD 72.5 in 2007(up to the October).But January 3, 2008, the international crude oil forward price breaks USD 100 for the very first time in the dish.
The United States was allied to keep chairman grillage Si Pan in the memoirs ago, the taboo earth's surface reached Yi war of petroleum political scheme, the logic conjunction which thinks that two wars(gulf war and Yi fight) were two petroleum crisises order.
The energy fight:
Fry "political soil" of make the oil price
The international relations college of the University of Peking Doctor gives birth to a tutor, 《strategy in the American nation 》author's professor Liu2 Jin Zhi2 of one book think, spread of lately a petroleum crisis, supply with ex- few petroleum to suddenly reduce dissimilarity, the nonexistent petroleum of the petroleum supply and demand in the crisis runs short this time of circumstance.Under the sistuation that the supply and demand didn't take place a basic change, the oil price soars this time of fry and make the composition be a little more more.In all countries value energy and fight under the big background of energy, the international oil price seems to be very "sensitive" and be easy to a quilt various market thus and political the strength be infinite to"enlarge".
If from the greater scope observation, the capital is fry to make energy, besides which, ， all countries are actually also "fry" energy and fight "have no nitric smoke war" atmosphere of energy very strong.Africa and North Pole since last year highly anticipated, be will be a future oil because of these two districts the spirit mine of new territory.
Same, since last year, Iran, two countries in Venezuela has been aring make use of "energy weapon" to expand a diplomatic maneuvering space.Because Iran energy abundant, EU, Russia, Japan, India etc. country and Iran exists an energy cooperation, biggest led long to make the step of the Security Council to Iran sanctions and make any schemes of American isolated Iran all become a complication.Check Venezuela Wei Si to say, the local oil spirit resources then resists the core capital of the United States.
Professor Liu2 Jin Zhi2 think that Russia is familiar with ground to use "energy card" day by day, be the very good case of exertive"energy diplomacy".In the global energy problem day by day under the outstanding background, Russia will raise an oil spirit productivity and develop outward oil spirit cooperation conduct and actions expand a national interest and promote the important means of big country position, lend this speed the instauration and development of oneself national strength.
"Mental state expectation" pushes a high oil price
As early as 2008 year agos, have a scientist to think, the petroleum produce of"highest point" period will in the coming 5~10 year arrival.Once the petroleum produces a "highest point" ages arrival, the petroleum yield will year by year descend.
From farsighted see, because of world to the energy need expect of increase quantity to present up-trend, but energy again have can't reborn and sparse lack sex, is similar to"mental state expectation" will make the oil price always maintain a high movement.
BE an even if similar solar energy, wind energy, living creature source thus of renewable energy, under the best condition, also can satisfy to industrialize national energy demanding quarter.Although supply and demand's ising self-contradict can solve in the short run, the oil price can quickly drop in the short run, in view of long-term, the expectation of "the energy gradually dried up theory", always speculate capital to stir up trouble of prop up a point.
Therefore want to solve an increase of international oil price, have to also remove a world to produce the energy of aftertime and supply shortage of misgiving, dissolve similar the mental state expectation of "the petroleum be dried up".However, see currently, the mental state of"the energy be missing" the expectation obviously can't remove. 参考技术D Petroleum crisis:
Can't get away from the shadow of war
If the track soared from the recent years oil price see, a new petroleum belongs to "gradually enter a type" to soar and come to a "critical point" of self-contradict explosion till 2008.Take a wide view in recent years international environment, the oil price equally can't get away from the shadow of war.
Having scholar to early put forward "2004 be the year of the explosion of petroleum crisis" is earlyexactly the second year that the Yi fights explosion this year.
There is data manifestation, Yi war after breaking out one anniversary, because the war presents a protracted warfare evidence, originally think the viewpoint that the war will end very quickly and change gradually to the misgiving of petroleum supply.That year March 27, the international crude oil futures first time is more than USD 30 per bucket.Henceforth, Yi war under the background of the oil price soar speed obviously speed:2004 is USD 41.5 and 2005 is USD 56.7 and 2006 is USD 66.2, is USD 72.5 in 2007(up to the October).But January 3, 2008, the international crude oil forward price breaks USD 100 for the very first time in the dish.
The United States was allied to keep chairman grillage Si Pan in the memoirs ago, the taboo earth's surface reached Yi war of petroleum political scheme, the logic conjunction which thinks that two wars(gulf war and Yi fight) were two petroleum crisises order.
The energy fight:
Fry "political soil" of make the oil price
The international relations college of the University of Peking Doctor gives birth to a tutor, 《strategy in the American nation 》author's professor Liu2 Jin Zhi2 of one book think, spread of lately a petroleum crisis, supply with ex- few petroleum to suddenly reduce dissimilarity, the nonexistent petroleum of the petroleum supply and demand in the crisis runs short this time of circumstance.Under the sistuation that the supply and demand didn't take place a basic change, the oil price soars this time of fry and make the composition be a little more more.In all countries value energy and fight under the big background of energy, the international oil price seems to be very "sensitive" and be easy to a quilt various market thus and political the strength be infinite to"enlarge".
If from the greater scope observation, the capital is fry to make energy, besides which, ， all countries are actually also "fry" energy and fight "have no nitric smoke war" atmosphere of energy very strong.Africa and North Pole since last year highly anticipated, be will be a future oil because of these two districts the spirit mine of new territory.
Same, since last year, Iran, two countries in Venezuela has been aring make use of "energy weapon" to expand a diplomatic maneuvering space.Because Iran energy abundant, EU, Russia, Japan, India etc. country and Iran exists an energy cooperation, biggest led long to make the step of the Security Council to Iran sanctions and make any schemes of American isolated Iran all become a complication.Check Venezuela Wei Si to say, the local oil spirit resources then resists the core capital of the United States.
Professor Liu2 Jin Zhi2 think that Russia is familiar with ground to use "energy card" day by day, be the very good case of exertive"energy diplomacy".In the global energy problem day by day under the outstanding background, Russia will raise an oil spirit productivity and develop outward oil spirit cooperation conduct and actions expand a national interest and promote the important means of big country position, lend this speed the instauration and development of oneself national strength.
"Mental state expectation" pushes a high oil price
As early as 2008 year agos, have a scientist to think, the petroleum produce of"highest point" period will in the coming 5~10 year arrival.Once the petroleum produces a "highest point" ages arrival, the petroleum yield will year by year descend.
From farsighted see, because of world to the energy need expect of increase quantity to present up-trend, but energy again have can't reborn and sparse lack sex, is similar to"mental state expectation" will make the oil price always maintain a high movement.
BE an even if similar solar energy, wind energy, living creature source thus of renewable energy, under the best condition, also can satisfy to industrialize national energy demanding quarter.Although supply and demand's ising self-contradict can solve in the short run, the oil price can quickly drop in the short run, in view of long-term, the expectation of "the energy gradually dried up theory", always speculate capital to stir up trouble of prop up a point.
Therefore want to solve an increase of international oil price, have to also remove a world to produce the energy of aftertime and supply shortage of misgiving, dissolve similar the mental state expectation of "the petroleum be dried up".However, see currently, the mental state of"the energy be missing" the expectation obviously can't remove.
祝你好运
word 里有翻译工具的