自动驾驶第四弹||自动驾驶的未来，共享or私人拥有？

Posted 2021-04-27 一天一篇经济学人

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导读

Bruce插话

一月时光转瞬即逝，主题阅读板块也迎来了收官之作。第四期内容想了很久，但一直悬而未果。直至有一天埋首伏案前苦读英语论文看到一排排密密麻麻的全英文字母才恍然大悟，我们的最终目的不是无障碍的进行全英文阅读吗？想到这里，那么第四期内容也呼之欲出了——全段英文+全段中文，而中文只做参考之用。相信细心的读者已经发现，我们四期内容英语注解的行进逻辑。从第一期注解词汇语法难到第二期对较长篇幅的文章进行行文逻辑分析，到第三期的模仿造句，再到最后一期的全段英文+全段中文，前三期的英语注解形式暗合了英语学习的必不可缺的三个过程，认识词汇、把握文章脉络、遣词用句写作，而这三个阶段也正是我们小时候学习汉语的过程。四期内容，层层递增，层次分明，这是我在英语学习道路上的尝试之一，也代表了我们主题板块的诚意。以后我们每月的四期内容也将会以类似形式行进，希望能在英语学习的道路上给予你们一点帮助。

主题内容，四篇文章都是经过精挑细选的，有某种意义上的逻辑关系，如果把四期内容连起来一起看，会有惊喜发生。每一期的文章和评论都是围绕这一主题的某个核心点来进行收集整合的，第一期的基础技术，围绕的是自动驾驶涉及的技术广度，第二期的谁在掌舵，分享了技术分级这一知识点，第三期的汽车事故，思考的是机器的伦理道德困境，第四期的未来共享探讨的是自动驾驶未来的可能性——共享模式。因时间精力所限，我们无法对这一领域的所有内容进行解剖，我们能做到是把握最为核心的点，也希望我们的评论能为你们带来一思考，如此方能谈得上是有意义了吧。

在这里，向大家征集主题，集思广益方能有好的点子，请在后台留言，我们会酌情考虑。对某个主题特别有兴趣的想写评论或者有什么建议的，也可以留言或者后台私信小编。

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听力|精读|翻译|词组

Why driverless cars will mostly be shared, not owned

为什么未来无人驾驶汽车大多以共享模式存在，而不是私人拥有？

The total number of vehicles on the roads could have halved by 2050

到2050年道路上的车辆总数可能将减少一半

WHEN will you be able to buy a driverless car that will work anywhere? This commonly asked question contains three assumptions: that autonomous vehicles (AVs) will resemble cars; that people will buy them; and that they will be capable of working on all roads in all conditions. All three of those assumptions may be wrong. Although today’s experimental vehicles are modified versions of ordinary cars, with steering wheels that eerily turn by themselves, future AVs will have no steering wheel or pedals and will come in all sorts of shapes and sizes; pods capable of carrying six or eight people may prove to be the most efficient design. Rather than work everywhere, these pods will initially operate within geographically limited and well-mapped urban areas. And they will be shared “robotaxis”, summoned when needed using a ride-hailing app. The first self-driving vehicle you ride in will be shared, not owned, for a combination of technological and economic reasons.

The technology needed to get vehicles to drive themselves has not yet been perfected, but it has improved enormously over the past decade and is on the verge of working reliably, at least in relatively simple urban environments with good weather. This explains why Phoenix, Arizona, is a popular place to test AVs; Waymo, the self-driving car unit of Google’s parent company, hopes to launch a robotaxi service there this year, based on Chrysler Pacifica minivans. Other robotaxi services will appear in the coming years in other cities, and the areas they cover will gradually be expanded. The initial deployment of self-driving vehicles as robotaxis makes sense because they only need to work within a particular area—and because the sensors needed for a fully autonomous AV to sense its surroundings and figure out how to respond currently cost more than the vehicle itself. That is less of a problem for a shared robotaxi, however, which will be in use and generating revenue for several hours a day. (Private cars, by contrast, are used on average only about 5% of the time.)

So economics and practicality dictate that AVs will start out as shared robotaxis. Eventually, perhaps by 2030 or so, the cost of sensors will fall and it will no longer be prohibitively expensive to buy your own self-driving vehicle. The question then is whether you would want to. For people living in cities, robotaxis could offer a far cheaper and more convenient alternative to car ownership. At the moment, travelling by Uber or another ride-hailing service costs around $2.50 a mile; but take away the driver, and that cost could fall to $0.70 a mile, reckon analysts at UBS. That is less than the $1.20 a mile it costs, on average, to run a private car (when fuel, insurance, servicing and other costs are factored in). So if robotaxis really work as advertised, many urbanites could ditch their cars and save thousands of dollars a year. UBS predicts that by 2035, 80% of people will use robotaxis in cities where they are available, and that urban car ownership will fall by 70%.

No doubt some people will still want to own a car, and will buy a self-driving one. But the total number of vehicles on the road will fall by about half from its current level, UBS predicts, and by 2050 those vehicles will be split roughly equally between robotaxis and privately owned AVs. The robotaxis, being in almost constant use, will account for the vast majority of miles travelled. With fewer private vehicles needing to be parked, vast swathes of land currently wasted on parking will be available for other uses, such as housing. As cars did in the 20th century, AVs will redefine retailing and reshape cities, as well as providing a convenient new form of mobility. As with cars, which led to road deaths, pollution and congestion, there are likely to be unanticipated (and unpleasant) consequences for society from autonomous vehicles, such as a loss of privacy and the potential to use them as a means of social control. Removing the horse from horse-drawn carriages was an apparently simple change that had far-reaching effects. Similarly, there is much more to autonomous vehicles than simply removing the need for a driver—and much of their impact is a consequence of the fact that they will mostly be shared, not owned.

人们何时能买到畅行无阻的自动驾驶汽车？这个通常会被问的问题包含三个假设：自动驾驶汽车类似于私家车；人们愿意购买自动驾驶汽车；自动驾驶汽车能在任何路况下行驶。以上三个假设可能都不成立。尽管目前进行实验的自动驾驶车辆改良自普通汽车，安装了可以自行转向的方向盘，但未来的自动驾驶汽车可能没有方向盘或踏板，甚或形状各异、大小不一。能够容纳6或8人的车辆可能是最有效的设计。这些自动驾驶汽车最初只能在有限的规划良好的城市区域内行驶，而非任何地方。在未来，它们将变成共享的“机器人出租车”，需要时可通过应用程序叫车。由于技术和经济方面的原因，未来你搭乘的第一辆自动驾驶汽车将会以共享模式出现，而非私自拥有。

尽管目前还不够完美，但在过去的十年里自动驾驶技术已经取得巨大进步。至少在天气状况良好时，自动驾驶汽车几乎已经能在相对简单的城市环境中可靠运行了。这也解释了为什么亚利桑那州凤凰城是一个测试自动驾驶技术的好地方;谷歌母公司旗下研发自动驾驶汽车的子公司Waymo，希望今年在凤凰城推出“机器人出租车”服务，该车以克莱斯勒太平洋小型货车为基础。未来几年，将在其他城市陆续推出其他的“机器人出租车”服务，其覆盖的区域也将逐步扩大。在初期自动驾驶汽车用作机器人出租车是可理解的，一方面，因为它们只需在特定区域内工作；另一方面，因为全自动驾驶汽车需要传感器来感知周围环境并做出回应，但是目前传感器的成本比汽车本身高。然而，对于共享“机器人出租车”来说，这并不是问题，因为每天有数小时自动驾驶汽车会投入使用并产生收益（相比之下，私家车每天平均使用时间仅为5％左右）。

因此，经济实用性决定了自动驾驶汽车将会以共享模式进入我们的生活。最终，预计到2030年左右，传感器的成本将会下降，且自动驾驶汽车的价格也不再高不可攀。到那时，问题在于你自己想不想购买。对于城市居民而言，选择机器人出租车比私家车更便宜，也更为便捷。据瑞银分析师估算，如今使用Uber或其他叫车服务需要的费用为每英里2.5美元，但若除去司机的人工费，出行费用则降低为每英里0.7美元，低于私家车平均每英里1.2美元的费用（包括燃油、保险、服务等其他开销）。所以如果机器人出租车真像广告宣传的那样，那么许多城市居民将会丢弃他们自己的私家车，这样每年能节约成千上万的费用。据瑞银预测，到2035年，在机器人出租车覆盖的城市中，80%的人会使用机器人出租车，与此同时，城市的私家车拥有率将会下降70%。

毫无疑问，有些人仍想拥有一辆小汽车，并将会购买一辆自动驾驶汽车。但据瑞银预测，以当前水平计算，到2050年道路上的汽车总数将减少一半左右，且机器人出租车和私有自动驾驶汽车将平分汽车市场。因使用频率高，机器人出租车将占行驶里程的绝大部分。随着需要停放的私家车的数量下降，目前因停车位所占用的大片土地或可另作他用，比如住房供给。就像20世纪汽车所带来的改变一样，自动驾驶汽车也将重新定义零售业并重塑城市，以及为市民提供一种全新的便捷出行方式。与带来交通事故、环境污染和交通堵塞的私家车一样，自动驾驶汽车也可能会给社会带来预想不到(甚或令人不快)的后果，比如隐私泄露，甚至成为社会管制的手段。“马拉车卸马”之举看似简单，却影响深远。同样，对于自动驾驶汽车的影响来说，不仅仅是不需要司机，更多影响在于其主要用以共享，而非私自拥有。

提示：这一期的内容经济学人有特别报道，可在kindle亚马逊商店购买经济学人《无人驾驶，十万亿的大饼怎么分？》进行观看。

翻译组： 

Bella，大四老腊肉，热爱英语

Peter，外贸老狗，国际贸易专业

Lance，冒牌美少女，认识几个字母的万年烤鸭

 Emily，非英语专业，不久前完成托福GRE备考，英语爱好者

校对组：

Carol，爱好英语，备考二笔中~

Bruce，爱好英语，经济学人爱好者

Sindy，英语专业，CATTI备考，工作党

Halen，MBA硕士，二级笔译 ，中世佛会翻译志愿者

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