Python / fbprophet - 如何调整季节

Question

数据集：

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341: 705, 342: 796, 343: 1300, 344: 2061, 345: 1723, 346: 1490, 347: 1084, 348: 1113, 349: 735, 350: 825, 351: 1607, 352: 998, 353: 796, 354: 1020, 355: 1062, 356: 1345, 357: 661, 358: 660, 359: 1168, 360: 2567, 361: 1090, 362: 943, 363: 1068, 364: 1084, 365: 744, 366: 1488, 367: 1799, 368: 1495, 369: 1667, 370: 1502, 371: 2026, 372: 2519, 373: 1758, 374: 1280, 375: 1417, 376: 1624, 377: 2505, 378: 4017, 379: 2159, 380: 1811, 381: 3177, 382: 1401, 383: 1472, 384: 2824, 385: 3620, 386: 2914, 387: 3280, 388: 1346, 389: 1983, 390: 2816, 391: 1688, 392: 2623, 393: 1696, 394: 3269, 395: 2460, 396: 2750, 397: 3107, 398: 2704, 399: 4018, 400: 1267, 401: 3166, 402: 2545, 403: 2364, 404: 2543, 405: 2455, 406: 4592, 407: 3344, 408: 2117, 409: 1650, 410: 1485, 411: 1711, 412: 2032, 413: 4209, 414: 2958, 415: 1578, 416: 2336, 417: 2178, 418: 1538, 419: 1243, 420: 3055, 421: 1461, 422: 2204, 423: 1549, 424: 2165, 425: 2378, 426: 2302, 427: 4959, 428: 2098, 429: 3720, 430: 2600, 431: 1960, 432: 1809, 433: 2249, 434: 3443, 435: 4136, 436: 3995, 437: 3971, 438: 3638, 439: 3618, 440: 1965, 441: 4234, 442: 4466, 443: 1800, 444: 3112, 445: 3845, 446: 1829, 447: 2142, 448: 3678, 449: 2345, 450: 2341, 451: 2577, 452: 3043, 453: 2292, 454: 3665, 455: 2001, 456: 4137, 457: 2589, 458: 2891, 459: 4068, 460: 4476, 461: 1991, 462: 2503, 463: 4070, 464: 3028, 465: 2360, 466: 4522, 467: 3604, 468: 1828, 469: 5575, 470: 3126, 471: 2040, 472: 2423, 473: 2037, 474: 3521, 475: 2631, 476: 6056, 477: 3930, 478: 1976, 479: 4781, 480: 3594, 481: 3728, 482: 3081, 483: 3578, 484: 3661, 485: 5168, 486: 4970, 487: 5661, 488: 1909, 489: 3595, 490: 4857, 491: 4428, 492: 3438, 493: 5195, 494: 2705, 495: 5214, 496: 3698, 497: 4641, 498: 2668, 499: 5697, 500: 5343, 501: 3455, 502: 4285, 503: 3045, 504: 4246, 505: 7447, 506: 5278, 507: 5044, 508: 3152, 509: 4094, 510: 4439, 511: 6518, 512: 5619, 513: 5687, 514: 5881, 515: 6972, 516: 3180, 517: 2569, 518: 3769, 519: 6369, 520: 7647, 521: 6467, 522: 5384, 523: 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使用fbprophet我能够得到预测，我唯一的问题是在10月到1月/ 2月左右的年末期间有预测账户。

结果：

将结果导出到Tableau我得到以下图：

正如你所看到的，oct到feb期间看起来过于预测。

码：

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from fbprophet import Prophet

df['floor'] = 0

#holidays
christmas = pd.DataFrame({
  'holiday': 'christmas',
  'ds': pd.to_datetime(['2008-12-25', '2009-12-25', '2010-12-25',
                        '2011-12-25', '2012-12-25', '2013-12-25',
                        '2014-12-25', '2015-12-25', '2016-12-25',
                        '2017-12-25', '2018-12-25', '2019-12-25']),
  'lower_window': -1,
  'upper_window':  1,
})

holidays = christmas

m = Prophet(holidays=holidays,
            seasonality_mode='multiplicative',
            holidays_prior_scale=0.05
           )
m.fit(df)

future = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=365)
future['floor'] = 0

forecast = m.predict(future)
fig = m.plot(forecast)

关于我做错了什么以及如何调整模型来更准确地解释这些时期的任何想法？