进口纱现货身陷泥沼，外盘一骑绝尘•Yarn Weekly Review（Issue No.17）

Posted 2021-05-01 进口宝

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进口纱现货身陷泥沼，外盘一骑绝尘•Yarn Weekly Review（Issue No.17） Spring is in the air!

Planting the cotton crop as well as planting optimism and excitement.

国储棉拍储进入了第九周，轮出底价为14941元/吨，虽然较上周调低了96元/吨，但是拍储成交率大幅回升到了周一的71.96%，是否和上周五的美棉期货大涨有关？上周的COTLOOK现货指数一直处于高位横盘过程中，但是现货市场的普遍反馈是进口纱市场已经进入了销售淡季，现货销售缓慢，成交价格在低位徘徊。对峙状态的中美贸易战给国内和国际市场都带来了紧张情绪，市场变化很可能是一触即发，而且因为穆斯林国家的斋月就要开始，一直到6月份纱线产量将会减少，目前海外纱线价格坚挺且高企。在以上的综合因素作用下，降价盘和涨价盘纷纷出现，市场明显冷清，价格混乱。

National Reserve cotton auction entered into a ninth week, base price is RMB14941/ton, it is decreased RMB42/ton this week, but auction rates bounced back to 71.96% of Monday, is it got influence by big jumped ICE index last Friday? Another important iconic index Cotlook A index recently has always been in the high bar, general market got the similar feedback which market has come into slack season, spot shipment sales is slow down, and the sales price is staying low level rate. Impasse tension in trade war against China and USA causes some panic emotion to both domestic and international market business, Ramadan is about to begin in Muslim countries, it will impact yarn output, for time being, overseas yarn is offering high price level. Combination of the above factors, spot market is slow down, more and more dumping and rising prices had emerged, the market price is chaotic.

Futures Daily Market-8th May.2018

进口纱现货身陷泥沼，外盘一骑绝尘•Yarn Weekly Review（Issue No.17）

现货市场对精梳有一定的需求，但是一般报价和预期价格相差太大，只有乌纱的紧密精梳价格还在采购接受范围之内，30/32/40支紧密精梳人民币到仓库价格分别为每吨25700/26400/27900。越南32普上喷气品质报价在每公斤美金3.18。目前巴基斯坦远期货10支赛络的报价在450-460，7月份货期的货处于销售中。印尼的顶级包漂白32精报价在3.70. 根据笔者观察，5月份的后续到港货量不会减少，但是现货市场已经进入淡季行情，走货缓慢，销售价格在低位徘徊，所以进口商依然期待印度普梳上喷气机织纱16支/21支/32支成交价格在每公斤美金2.55/2.65/2.95，但是印度实际报价已经远远超过该水平，所以近两周的远期货成交缓慢。

There are certain requirements of combed yarn in spot market, but still big gap between offers and bids, only Uzbekistan compact combed yarn are in acceptable range, 30/32/40s compact combed yarn delivery price is RMB25700/26400/27900 per ton. Vietnam origin forward shipments of 32sKW for Airjet loom quality yarn is offering USD3.18. Pakistani suppliers are offering at around 450-460 level of 10s Siro yarn, July portion capacity is available for sale. According to the author, it will maintain the import volume of coming month. But spot shipment sales are slow down due to slack season, sales is moving at low level, importers are still expecting the forward shipments’ price which would be same as previous Indian origin 16sKW/21sKW/32sKW for Airjet looms quality level yarn at around USD2.55/2.65/2.95, but India actual quotation is far beyond this level, forward shipments sales are slow down as well.

Related Currency Conversion-8th May.2018

进口纱现货身陷泥沼，外盘一骑绝尘•Yarn Weekly Review（Issue No.17）

根据进口宝对市场的观察，中美贸易战的预期不会减退，目前处于大战前的平静，没有人能够躲过，将影响深远！短期内人民币汇率问题将远远大于棉花价格问题和市场销售问题。18年以来我们一直预期短期人民币进一步贬值的可能性不大，但是最近两周汇率快速上涨1.5%，市场开始恐慌。国际市场上，由于美元的走强，主要棉纱出口国家的汇率也都相应上涨，利于他们的出口。从棉纱成本上来看，上周美棉期货指数维持在一个高水平，今天到达了86.34，处于11个月内的高位.Cotlook ‘A’指数在93.25，也维持在高位。所以棉花和汇率对棉纱价格的支撑还是比较的明显。

According to the observation of the market, it is more sensibility about the fluctuation of RMB currency exchange rate. The prediction of tension China-USA trade war will keep going on, the moment calms before the war. We all will be buckled up and bear the results, no one can escape, it will have far-reaching influence! In recent two weeks, RMB/USD converts rate is increased rapidly 1.5%, importers are panic on it. Going to international market, US currency keeps strong situation these few weeks, and main cotton yarn supplying countries’ currency are depreciating, it is good for their export business. Regarding the cost of cotton yarn, U.S.Cotton futures index is at 86.34, this is a very high level in recent 11 months, Cotlook ‘A’ index touched 93.25， also remains very high level, means both cotton price and currency exchange rate are firm signals to support the yarn price.

Viscose Products Market-8th May.2018

进口纱现货身陷泥沼，外盘一骑绝尘•Yarn Weekly Review（Issue No.17）

上周粘胶纤维市场价格稳定，北方产能限产加上传统市场淡季的双重影响，中端纤维价格暂时稳定在了人民币13800/吨，高端纤维的价格维持在14200/吨。人棉纱销售进入淡季模式，但是暂时实际成交量并无没明显减少，或许后期价格将会有所下降，目前出口30支环纺价格在每公斤美金2.65.

The market price of viscose fiber was stable last week, due to combined impacts on limited running capacity of north China and traditional slack season of the spot market, medium quality fiber price is at RMB13800/ton, first grade fiber price is maintained at RMB14200/ton. Rayon yarn has updated offering price at USD2.65, this is the big decline compare to previous sales, but demand is still there, not shrink yet, the spot market price might come down further soon.

据国产纱市场调研了解，纯棉纱市场交投稳定，市场还是维持前期成交价格，针织纱成交比较活跃，但是机织纱成交处于相对弱势。抛储棉花的成交率虽然起伏很大，但是纺织厂销售基本是以成交为主，价格稳定。

The glimpse we got of local yarn market, knitting yarn demands is still good, but weaving yarn market is slow in recent couple of months. Although rate of national reserve stocks sales has been recovered, but due to slack season of spot yarn market, spinners basically prefer to make the deal primarily. At this moment, the exact market transaction price is maintaining the previous level, Local yarn 32skw is at RMB22500-23500/ton,40skw at RMB23000-24000/ton, and OE 10s at RMB15000-15500/ton.

今日郑棉纱期货主力1810收于23875元/吨，当天涨370元/吨，涨幅1.57%。

今日郑棉期货主力1809收于15365元/吨，当天涨40元/吨，涨幅0.26%。